Hilary McMillan: Hydrology Information and Downloads   I am a hydrological scientist working at NIWA: the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, in Christchurch, New Zealand Contact me at work: Hilary McMillan National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd PO Box 8602, Christchurch, New Zealand +64 3 343 8071 Email:

My research interests include rainfall-runoff modelling, hydrological process studies, hydrological model structure, uncertainty estimation and floodplain inundation modelling.
Some current projects:

• Improving process representation and model structure in hydrological models, using new analyses of multi-response data from NZ and abroad.
• Design of hydrological models with flexible structures which can track water, tracers and contaminants through catchment systems.
• Setting up an experimental catchment in the Canterbury high country, to study catchment processes in NZ upland environments.
• Understanding how uncertainties in measured data (e.g. rainfall and discharge) affect hydrological process understanding and model predictions
• Coupling Numerical Weather Prediction model forecasts to rainfall-runoff models to provide flood forecasts; including the use of Kalman filters for assimilation of discharge measuresments to correct model states.

Publications

McMillan, H. (2012) Effect of spatial variability and seasonality in soil moisture on drainage thresholds and fluxes in a conceptual hydrological model. Under Review for Hydrological Processes Pre-print

McMillan, H., D. Tetzlaff, M. Clark, C. Soulsby (2012) Do time variant tracers aid the evaluation of hydrological model structure? A multi-model approach. Under minor revision for Water Resources Research. Pre-print

McMillan, H., T. Krueger, J. Freer. Benchmarking observational uncertainties for hydrology (2012) Under minor revision for Hydrological Processes Pre-print

McMillan, H., M. Clark, W. Bowden, M. Duncan, R.Woods (2011). Hydrological field data from a modeller's perspective: Part 1. Diagnostic tests for model structure. Hydrological Processes: 25(4): 511-522 Article Pre-print

Clark, M., McMillan, H. , Collins, D., Kavetski, D., Woods, R. (2011). Hydrological field data from a modeller's perspective: Part 2. Process-based evaluation of model hypotheses. Hydrological Processes: 25(4): 523-543 Article Pre-print

Poyck, S., J. Hendrikx, H. McMillan. E.O. Hreinsson, R. Woods (2011) Combined snow- and streamflow modelling to estimate impacts of climate change on water resources in the Clutha, New Zealand. Journal of Hydrology (NZ) Article

McMillan, H., B. Jackson, M. Clark, D. Kavetski, R. Woods (2010). Input Uncertainty in Hydrological Models: An Evaluation of Error Models for Rainfall . Journal of Hydrology 400(1-2): 83-94 Article Pre-print

McMillan, H., J. Freer, F. Pappenberger, T. Krueger, M. Clark (2010). Impacts of Uncertain River Flow Data on Rainfall-Runoff Model Calibration and Discharge Predictions . Hydrological Processes DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7587 Article Pre-print

McMillan, H., and M. Clark (2009), Rainfall-runoff model calibration using informal likelihood measures within a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme, Water Resour. Res., 45, W04418, doi:10.1029/2008WR007288. Article Pre-print

McMillan H., J. Brasington (2008), End-to-end flood risk assessment: A coupled model cascade with uncertainty estimation, Water Resour. Res., 44, W03419, doi:10.1029/2007WR005995. Article Pre-print

McMillan H., J. Brasington (2007). Reduced complexity strategies for modelling urban floodplain inundation. Geomorphology, Volume 90, Issues 3-4, Pages 226-243. Article Pre-print

Freer, J.E., McMillan, H., McDonnell, J.J., Beven, K.J. (2004).Constraining dynamic TOPMODEL responses for imprecise water table information using fuzzy rule based performance measures. Journal of Hydrology, Volume 291, Issues 3-4, Pages 254-277 Article Pre-print

Refereed Conference Proceedings

Pechlivanidis, I.G., B. Jackson, H. McMillan, H. Gupta (2011). Driving model parameter identification using informational entropy-based metrics. Proceedings of the 12th International Conference on Environmental Science and Technology (CEST2011), 8 - 10 September 2011, Rhodes island, Greece Article

Clark, M.P., D. Kavetski, F. Fenicia, H. McMillan (2011). The quest for physically realistic streamflow forecasting models. Proceedings of the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) Conference, CSIRO, 2011 Pre-print

Pechlivanidis I.G., Jackson B., McMillan H. (2010) The Use of Entropy as a Model Diagnostic in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling . Proceedings of the 2010 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Ottawa, Canada Article

McMillan, H., M. Clark, R. Woods, M. Duncan, MS. Srinivasan, A. Western, D. Goodrich (2010). Improving Perceptual and Conceptual Hydrological Models using Data from Small Basins. Status and Perspectives of Hydrology in Small Basins (Proceedings of the Workshop held at Goslar-Hahnenklee, Germany, 30 March-2 April 2009). IAHS Publ. 336-08, 2010. Article Pre-print

Selected Posters

McMillan, H.K., Tetzlaff, D., Clark, M., Soulsby, C.
Evaluating hydrological model structure using tracer data within a multi-model framework
Presented at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 2011.

McMillan, H.K., Clark, M.P., Martinez, G., Goodrich, D., Srinivasan, M.S., Duncan, M., Woods, R., Western, A.
Diagnostics for Model Structure: Improving Hydrological Models using Data from Experimental Basins.
Presented at European Geophysical Union Conference, Vienna, 2009.

McMillan, H.K., Freer, J., Pappenberger, F., Krueger, T., Clark, M.P.
Impacts of Uncertain Flow Data on Rainfall-Runoff Model Calibration and Discharge Predictions in a Mobile-Bed River
Presented at American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, 2008.

McMillan, H.K., Clark, M.P., Ibbitt, R.P.
Calibration strategies for distributed hydrological models using qualitative knowledge of spatially variable process characteristics.
Presented at European Geophysical Union Conference, Vienna, 2008.

Freer, J.E., McMillan, H. K., McDonnell, J.J., Beven, K.J.
Constraining dynamic TOPMODEL responses for imprecise water table information using fuzzy rule based performance measures.
Presented at European Geophysical Union Conference, Nice, 2003.

PhD Thesis

Download my thesis here: 'End-to-End Flood Risk Assessment: A Model Cascade with Uncertainty Estimation'.